Friday
July 10, 2015
1-855-RWT-0008
Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)
Great Morning!
Closing Prices From Yesterday
Confused? Don’t know if you are protected in a crash?
Call the office for assistance!
Today’s Number(s)
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
The markets opened very strong with the Dow up over 230 points before bleeding back 200 of those points. Shares of stocks in China opened very strong as China was up 6% when the markets opened. But stocks like BABA and AAPL backed off fast and hard on concerns of dwindling sales from the Chinese consumer.
The bonds fell dramatically with the TLT being down 2.37 after fears of global contagion diminished.
GREEK markets were up 6.5%.
China markets were up 5%
Today
UP BIG and then worry.
Greece will be up >6% on the open (in all likelihood).
Pre-Markets
Greece has sent in a proposal for a bailout. The items they agreed to are more negative towards Greece than had the people passed the referendum, or had Tsipras not walked out of meetings like a child. But he must have caught on that his political life expectancy was rotting. Last Sunday our Greek SuepZero promised his poor sheep he would “have a better deal in 48 hours”.
Well Europe didn’t blink, but Tsipras did. Of course he is a politician so he will spin this worse deal being better than the previous deal, but …
No deal came for the first 48 hours or the second 48 hours. In the 11th hour Tsipras grovelled for $53.5 billion Euros. This si NOT a done deal, but only what Tsipras offered the EU. It I important to keep in mind it is almost exactly what the Greek people voted “NO” to last Sunday, but we wont tell them that little secret.
Greece is proposing (has not been accepted):
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Increase taxes on shipping companies.
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Phase out their EKAS retirement benefits by the end of 2019 (which will not be popular).
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VAT taxes of 23% on restaurants, catering, etc. Hotels at 13% VAT
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Raising age of retirement
There will be euphoria going into the open so long as China doesn’t nose dive again. After the open the euphoria and and short covering will likely end and people will refocus on China. That may be enough to kill yet another rally. China is a MUCH bigger fish than Greece for our markets – remember that.
OPTION TRADERS
Listen for that sucking sound of volatility collapsing 2 points on the open, and then 3 by the end of the day. People taking bullish bets probably want to use vertical spreads as naked options are tough sledding on these volatility levels.
Above is what I wrote yesterday and it did happen. The VIX did fall 2 points and then another point, but the market pulling back 200 points off the highs sent the VIX right back up to 20%. As for today, see the blue ink again.
A SEPERATE UPDATE IS COMING WELL BEFORE THE OPEN AND WILL HAVE ON A LOT OF TRADES.
We are long Greece that will be hedged, short put spreads closed, and long call spreads hedged.
Wednesday night we went through an example on a paper trade of buying the SPX $15 call spread and selling the E-mini call spread (at night) as a hedge. We also talked about the placement of condors all over to create a mine field of profit points for the market to land on.
You have an update coming showing how awesome the hedge we did int eh Emini is. We bought the same call spread in the SX as we sold in the Eminis, BUT there is a -8.10 advantage of the cash spread in our favor. So we essentially have on an 8.10 condor on for $0.20. Not bad, huh? The other half can be done for a big credit now. You guys ROCK!
POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.
Too True To Be Funny
College should be outlawed as it greatly increases your chances of losing a finger. Don’t believe me? Read below.
As you expect from me……I have done the math……….
TOTAL PLAYERS
There are a total of 53 total players allowed on an NFL team at any given time, and a total of 32 teams, meaning there are a total of 1,696 players at any given year.
TOTAL PEOPLE PLAYING WITH FIREWORKS
According to the “US Consumer Product Safety Commission”, approximately 102 people on the planet lose fingers each year from fireworks.
Math
NFL (0.12%)
In the NFL roughly you have about a 0.12% chance of losing a finger in the NFL if playing with fireworks.
WORLD (0.0000001416%)
There are currently 7.2 billion people on the planet right now. If 102 people lose fingers each year it means you have about a 0.0000001416% chance of losing a finger with fireworks.
UNITED STATES (Ages 10 – 50)
But that is stupid since some people don’t have the opportunity to acquire fireworks. People in Ethiopia struggle for food, let alone a bottle rocket or M-80. So lets say we just look at the number of Americans between the age of 10 and 50. That comes out to be about 168,500,000. If you divide 102 by 168,500,000 you get 6.053 X 10 -7, or about 0.00000605% chance of losing a finger.
SUMMARY
This makes the average NFL player 19,834 TIMES DUMBER than the AVERAGE American between the age of 10 and 50.
So anytime you feel down for making a dumb mistake just remember that you are almost 20,000 times smarter than an NFL player. Now think about how many NFL players have a ”college degree” (usually majoring in “Nocturnal Dormitory Activities”) compared to the average 10 year old. Given the liberal left way of thinking we should ban sports and college as it makes one dumb.
Also, CJ Wilson of Tampa lost two fingers, which makes him dumber than Jason Pierre-Paul (Giants) who only lost one finger.
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Attorney Stuff
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Trading is almost as much fun as black jack in Vegas, but without all the annoying distractions of free drinks, Broadway shows, gorgeous people with low morals, and free buffets. It also has about the same odds of success, so when you lose all your money you wont have to walk past a smiling pit boss. Even Bruce Wayne lost everything with options in The Dark Knight Rises, and Superman keeps his day job at the Daily Planet newspaper.
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