Morning Update: July 22, 2014

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1-855-RWT-0008

Random Walk’s Motto:

Loving our students like family allows us the energy to go beyond any other firm and your expectations.

yesterday

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Above I don’t have a net change for the VIX or SPX as TOS’s “thinkback” didn’t provide any real information. I tried! :)

 

There were a lot of cracks created in the dam last week, but so far they are hard to see. Though causing great structural issues for the market, the impact wont be seen for a while.

 

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RW Today

Today’s Number(s)

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This is not all of the earnings, rather a small portion that Random Walk has been watching in POT.

Yesterday and Today

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Yesterday

The markets opened down the equivalent of about 50 Dow points until an announcement was made that Obama was going to speak at 10:50pm eastern. After that announcement the markets drifted lower to a bottom of 16,974 (about 120 points down). At promptly 11:12 President came out to speak, but reiterated what he had said the previous day.

The markets are still afraid the President will say something tough one day that could signal getting into a military situation, but it is not going to happen with Obama. So after the speech ended the markets fought their way back to only down 20 on the day (made back 100 points). Then the day ended for all practical purposes. 

Today

We are now in “wait and see mode”. It has taken 2 years to NOT get to the bottom of Benghazi. It has taken an equal amount of time to NOT get to the bottom of IRS-gate. I suspect the same thing will happen with this (if the US has any culpability in the matter). Thus the markets will forget about this and move higher (most likely). That is unless yet another international mess is created.

I will say one thing for President Obama. He is certainly trying to give me the volatility in the markets I crave. Bush had one major international mess. Clinton had one mini one. Bush Sr had one. President Obama is all over the map, but none are sticking when there is $4.5 trillion on bond money that has to go somewhere.

Continue reading »

Morning Update: July 21, 2014

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1-855-RWT-0008

Random Walk’s Motto:

Loving our students like family allows us the energy to go beyond any other firm and your expectations.

yesterday

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There were a lot of cracks created in the dam last week, but so far they are hard to see. Though causing great structural issues for the market, the impact wont be seen for a while.

 

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RW Today

Today’s Number(s)

NO ECONOMIC NUMBERS TODAY

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This is not all of the earnings, rather a small portion that Random Walk has been watching in POT.

Yesterday and Today

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Yesterday

The markets we up almost as much as they had sold off the previous day. Recall that on Thursday we had a double feature of Israel going into the Gaza hunting Hamas (sounds like a chick-pea spread) and the Downing of a Malaysian flight. 

Today

Though there are no economic numbers out today, we do have the start of the real portion of earnings coming out. Last week’s corporate earnings were light and a preamble to the next few weeks. 135 companies report today, 140 report Tuesday, 218 report on Wednesday and 332 on Thursday. Nice!

Who knows what is going to happen today. I suspect that we will continue on with the bullish move, but in a guarded manner UNLESS more bone head moves come out of Russia, the US and Middle East.

The Middle East has always been a mess, but contained. After the Persian Gulf War Part 1&2 America over there was more hated than before, but as Machiavelli would say, “It is better to be feared than loved”. Now with all roads leading to weakness in American foreign policy the nut cases of the world are more embolden than ever to do something. They KNOW there will be no repercussions from the US.

Libya is heating up again – nothing done over their after out Ambassador and Seals we killed.

Iraq/ISIS -s heating up and the Muslim authorities are hunting down Christians

Russia

(I don’t believe for one second anything about a rogue group of Ukrainians wanting to be part of Russia, or they would just walk into Russia like Mexicans walk into the US). They shot down an airliner and have been stealing the debris and bodies in the Ukraine and taking them back to Moscow.

Iran – Scary Kerry is releasing $2.8 billion in money for them to help with humanitarian needs – like enriching Uranium.

Gaza – Humas soldiers (and by that I mean Iranian sponsored soldiers) are getting whacked by Israel, but have taken an Israeli soldier captive. This is a problem because unlike the US where we have a soldier sitting in a Mexican jail for being being forced to accidentally cross the boarder (and the President is doing nothing to get him back) Israel will NOT tolerate one of their soldiers being held captive. This is going to flare up even bigger until the soldier is returned.

Syria – After Kerry opened his mouth and let Putin checkmate him in staying out of Syria, they are now supporting ISIS in Iraq.

Problem

So the troubled area is no longer “troubled but quiet”.

One of these days a big event will occur that will not take weeks to figure out what happened. Then the half-life of news will not make culpability seem too far in the past to warrant punishment. And then the market will have its down day. But that is cool, too! Very cool. VERY COOL!

Continue reading »

Morning Update: July 18, 2014

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1-855-RWT-0008

Random Walk’s Motto:

Loving our students like family allows us the energy to go beyond any other firm and your expectations.

1 Day since the last 1% move. 

yesterday

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First crack was Tuesday.

The second crack was Wednesday

Third bigger crack yesterday. 

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Look. I know it appears that the dam has broken. Still just leaking. 

RW Today

Today’s Number(s)

Screen Shot 2014-07-18 at 12.56.02 AMYesterday and Today

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Yesterday

Yesterday we had a double feature.

PART ONE

The first mini-disaster was the shooting down of a Malaysian civilian aircraft with 295 people on it. During trading hours it was uncertain if the pane was shot down or mechanical failure. After the close it was confirmed that America saw a missile make radar contact and it had a heat signature fixed. This was deliberate. Now we don’t know if it was Moe, Larry and Curly working a missile truck, or if it was directed by someone important – like Putin.

PART TWO

Netenyahu announced the start of the ground war in the Gaza. Though I am not a war monger it is refreshing to see a leader not get pushed around. So that is what Israel did, and in a controlled big way. When news of this hit the markets fell another 80 points. I don’t think the news was worthy of an 80 point drop, but it was the timing of it that exacerbated the sell-off.

Had it happened on the open probably nothing much would have come of it. Had it happened on a different day probably nothing would have come of it. But considering both events happened on the same day it hit people’s emotional circuit breakers. Combine that with a 4-star general having the balls to speak out against his boss (the President) blaming him directly for ISIS taking control of Iraq, and you have a president looking the stooge. Forget that he is again taking another vacation at Martha’s Vineyard, far from illegal immigrants hoping fences, makes him look out of touch.

The Dow closed down 161 points (-0.94%)

The SPX closed down 23.45 points (-1.18%)

The VIX closed up 3.54 points at 14.54

Today

Two important numbers are out today.

Most likely we had another small scare to get rid of the weak hands. Some people just bluff at poker. Yes there are leaks in the dam, but dams usually don’t crumble quickly. It takes a while for the leak to erode the foundation.

The one thing that could cause HUGE problems is if PUTIN was the one who gave the order to shoot down the plane in retaliation for the harder sanctions imposed on him the previous day. Of course he will deny it, but something like a missile is mathematically easy to track its trajectory. I am sure the US knows the exact latitude and longitude to the foot where the missile originated from. MY GUESS IS that Putin shot it down and will blame it on the Rebels. He is a sneaky little man.

If we have conclusive proof, or at least 85% of it, that Putin ordered the plan down things will kick up a notch. Baring that, we should see a few weak hands selling on the open and then back to normal next week. 

Continue reading »

Morning Update: July 17, 2014

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1-855-RWT-0008

Random Walk’s Motto:

Success through integrity and care. The law of abundance means we can all win.

61 Days in a row where the market has not made a >1% move. Unsustainable? YOU BET

  yesterdayScreen Shot 2014-07-17 at 2.05.17 AM

First crack was Tuesday. The second crack was yesterday.

 

 

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I am not going into most of the negatives facing the market as they are self-evident and will sound like a rant against politicians. $4 billion to give $90K per person who enters into this country illegally is a mess that need not be discussed. Iraq changing its name to ISIS is another mess that only the most oblivious and biased individual can’t see the long term negatives for the market. 

RW Today

Today’s Number(s)

Screen Shot 2014-07-17 at 2.05.43 AMYesterday and Today

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Yesterday

Another record for the stock market. We are now up 165% since 2008-2009. But this is not a bubble, right?

Yesterday Yellen went from saying the market is not in a bubble situation to saying low cap stocks are in a small bubble. The funny thing is the market is only 100 Dow points higher. I guess 100 Dow points is the new measure between fair value and over value.

Congress tore Yellen apart for the first time, which is refreshing. Not that Yellen is all bad, and not that she doesn’t push back. But it has been too long since the Fed has anyone question them, look at their books, or ask about how they set policy. For a corporation (the Federal Reserve is neither Federal nor a Reserve) that controls the entire world economy, it should not be subject to the whims on any one person other than ME. Let me buy a few options before I assume the post please. 

Today

Another day with a lot of economic numbers out. After the last Fed meeting with Congress I am anticipating bad news being bad news for a couple of days, and the market can only go higher if it earns it through good news.

10:00am is the Philly Fed that can mess things up, so don’t forget about it. 

Continue reading »

Morning Update: July 15, 2014

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1-855-RWT-0008

Random Walk’s Motto:

Success through integrity and care. The law of abundance means we can all win.

59 Days in a row where the market has not made a >1% move. Unsustainable? YOU BET

 

yesterday

 

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RW Today

Happy Day!

Earnings This Week
(just a few of the bigger ones – not all stocks)

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Today’s Number(s)

Yesterday and Today

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Yesterday

The Dow closed up 111 points because Yellen spoke and said that easy money is needed after the recovery. Someone doesn’t want to see the stock and bond market both crash in her tenure. I am sure the Fed would like to see rates stay low until their 10 year bond portfolio expires and they get back $4 trillion. The problem is when it does expire they will probably have to buy them back.

But it was good enough to cause the markets to jump even if the TLT dropped. 

Today

A plethora of economic numbers are out today.

I suspect we are going higher because everything turns this market higher – for now. For NOW. But things are getting closer and closer to changing. Yellen must be nervous about the deflation/pop/explosion of the bond and stock market or she would not be talking about low rates indefinitely. I am still waiting for several weeks up strong up days, day-after-day. When I see that I am then scared. 

Continue reading »

Morning Update: July 14, 2014

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1-855-RWT-0008

Random Walk’s Motto:

Success through integrity and care. The law of abundance means we can all win.

yesterday

Screen Shot 2014-07-14 at 7.57.47 AM

58 Days in a row where the market has not made a >1% move. Unsustainable? YOU BET

RW Today

Happy Day!

Earnings This Week

(just a few of the bigger ones – not all stocks)

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NO NUMBERS TODAY

Yesterday and Today

 

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Yesterday

Strange and quiet day Friday. We opened down about 50 Dow points and sat for a while. In POT this is when you got an email saying I a selling put spreads. Then throughout the day we slowly ran higher despite fear of upcoming earnings and Portugal’s banking crisis. The only real surprise was AMZN was up over 55 to close up 18.28. Ebay was up 1.165 at 51.50. POT people see POT section below. 

Today

Okay….last week was a joke when the Dow opened 180+ lower on Portugal. BUT we have been experiencing huge headwinds for the last 3 years and the market continues to climb. What is different this time is it caught people off guard an started thinking about having missed the top. But I don’t think it

My best guess is that last week was a a baby scare to get the weak hands out of the market, and this longest running bull market in history is still going.

Continue reading »

Morning Update: July 11, 2014

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1-855-RWT-0008

Random Walk’s Motto:

Success through integrity and care. The law of abundance means we can all win.

yesterday

 

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57? Days in a row where the market has not made a >1% move. Unsustainable? YOU BET

RW Today

Happy Day!

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Yesterday and Today

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Yesterday

Finally, almost. We opened down 1% or about 20 in the E-mini and 180+ lower in the Dow. Why? More European banks in trouble. We go up in this county when Citi doens’t pass stress tests. But when Cyprus, Greece or Portugal have problems the market sells off. That is the market we live in.

Don’t think about it too hard. It doesn’t have to make sense.

By the end of the day all of the people who felt the need to panic were done and the market closed down 70 points, or -.4%. So still no 15 move, but I felt alive for the first time in 58 days.

Today

My guess, and it is just a guess. We should open up near 17,000, right where we fell from originally (16,985 to be precise). But since we saw the first chink in the market’s armor I suspect anything is possible. So I am guessing (about 60% certain) that we will open near 17,000.

Within a couple of weeks we will be well above 17,000, and then the first fall comes. The other scenario that often comes out of situations like this is that today’s close was the best pace in the world to sell as it was a 130 point gift compare to the open. 

Continue reading »

Morning Update: July 10, 2014

 

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1-855-RWT-0008

Random Walk’s Motto:

Success through integrity and care. The law of abundance means we can all win.

55 Days in a row where the market has not made a >1% move. Unsustainable? YOU BET

muy

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rw1

Happy Day!

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Yesterday and Today

yat

Yesterday

A quiet and slightly positive day until the Fed spoke.

LESSON: What is CNBC great at? Besides Art Cashin and Rick Santelli, they are good at creating a Lot of noise. That noise is great WHEN you listen to the anal-cysts talk about their views because they are seldom right, but they are convincing. They present an awesome argument for something and people believe it.

Yesterday and today I was listening to them talk about their fears and concerns about the Fed tightening faster than the $10bln a month they have been doing. That, I am convinced, is a good part of 

the reason we were down 117 yesterday. People were afraid about the “What if the Fed…..?”

Truth be told, there is no mature and logical reason to think the Fed would do anything other than what they said they would – taper $10 bln until the end of October. The economy is not cooking strong. As a matter of fact I think we are weaker than the time leading up to the POP of the housing bubble. The only thing good in the numbers is unemployment, and that is only if you are looking for a job at the counter of Bed, Bath and Beyond of McDonald’s.

Middle class jobs where a husband (or wife) can support a family are not in short demand. As a matter of fact many people who had one good job 7 years ago now have 2 or 3 lousy ones. So some people (50 million of them if keeping score) are not even looking for jobs. 10,000 of them alone showed up in Washington to watch the first Pot store open, and this was during normal business hours. Obviously they were not going to work.

So KNOWING that the economy is doing average (not burning on all cylinders), there is no reason for the Fed to even taper fully, let alone faster than $120 bln a month. But the fear of it tapering possible $15 or $20 was a reason for the fall (at least partially).

So listening to CNBC as an observer to compliment with some common sense is good. To find trading ideas is bad. We obviously bounced after the Fed announced that they were doing exactly what they said they were going to do.

Today

I had a very strong suspicion that the market sell off was a joke on Tuesday, which is why we demonstrated getting long when the market was down 100. Now? I can’t see us not going through 17,000 again, but I am not committee to it anymore. 

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POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.

Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details. 

wtf

Too True To Be Funny

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Morning Update: July 09, 2014

Wednesday

July 9, 2014

mu1

1-855-RWT-0008

Random Walk’s Motto:

Success through integrity and care. The law of abundance means we can all win.

54 Days in a row where the market has not made a >1% move. Unsustainable? YOU BET

Screen Shot 2014-07-09 at 9.32.56 AMrw1

Happy Day!

Today’s Number(s)

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Yesterday and Today

yat

Yesterday

The market was down 117 and all of a sudden the bears came out of the woodwork. These things happen at BIG milestones. Marc Faber was saying that this was the start of something big.

 

Today

2:00pm is the key today. The FOMC is releasing its meeting minutes. For the past 6 months whatever was said was considered bullish. The last meeting, however, was an absolute non-event. Today? This one could move the market either way. So expect the markets to be very quiet until 2:00. 

Attorney Stuff

DISCLAIMER (Seriously!)


We have a goal, mission and objective. Please read below.

Trading is almost as much fun as black jack in Vegas, but without all the annoying distractions of free drinks, Broadway shows, gorgeous people with low morals, and free buffets. It also has about the same odds of success, so when you lose all your money you wont have to walk past a smiling pit boss. Even Bruce Wayne lost everything with options in The Dark Knight Rises, and Superman keeps his day job at the DailyPlanet newspaper.

We did NOT get any TARP money, so we are not aligned with any politician (none want us). We have the utmost respect for our attorneys who tell us any attempt to trade is throwing money out the window, and investing is risky business (still a great movie). Past performance doesn’t mean a thing. The future is even scarier. There is no guarantee the sun will come up tomorrow. Random Walk and everyone associated with it promises absolutely nothing. We guarantee nothing. We wont ever do anything right unless it is an accident.

Random Walk only provides education (and a great cup of Starbucks if you visit our office). If you want advice please consult an attorney, licensed broker, Tarot cards, tax consultant, investment adviser, etc. Random Walk, LLC is full of morons, dolts, has-been(s), chromosome damaged individuals, thieves, ex-cons, losers, and carnival barkers. Any attempt to find a semblance of intelligence or integrity in Random Walk would be a waste of time.

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Sales are far from our largest concern. We want you to know that trading is risky, even if very educated about different strategies designed to reduce risk. If you are a whiner, complainer, or generally unhappy with life please go to someone else in this industry who values money over happiness. We can point you in the direction of other firms that only care about the bottom and top line. Jerry Springer can also point you in the right direction. Besides whiners are a total distraction from the awesome group of students we are fortunate to have. We are truly blessed and thank them (provided that is fine with our lawyers). “Thank yous” are only handed out in countries where legal and void where prohibited. If your country does not allow “thank yous” please refrain from accepting it. This disclaimer is copyright material and not a joke. 

Morning Update: July 8, 2014

Tuesday

July 8, 2014

mu1

1-855-RWT-0008

Random Walk’s Motto:

Success through integrity and care. The law of abundance means we can all win.

53 Days in a row where the market has not made a >1% move. Unsustainable? YOU BET

rw1

Happy Day!

Today’s Number(s)

mu3

Yesterday and Today

yat

Yesterday

Another quiet day lulling us into the belief that volatility is gone forever. There were actually some pseudo-professional individuals in the media saying that volatility is a thing of the past. It is amazing, but those are usually the people who have to pay a LOT of money to be proved wrong.

TSLA was down because almost 3% after one of their Model S cars was involved in a crash and caught on fire. BTW, it had been stolen.

mu4

AAPL was up almost $2 placing the share price above $670 on per-split pricing. This stock is going to $100 sooner than later – I think

Today

The numbers out today are wimpy and we are 24 points above 17,000. Yesterday we hit a low of 16,992.45 but closed 2 days in a row above 17,000. As stated yesterday we will likely test 17,000 and have a slow day unless more fuel gets added to the booster engines and we hit 17,000. In short….these areas of record highs around big numbers are tricky. I am keeping my mouth shut, but suspect we will test 17,000 and bounce hard.

wtf

Too True To Be Funny

mu5

This is a PERFECT example of what is wrong with America.

Notice I used the word “perfect”.

Not just one person is a piece of crap here, but many. I will elaborate:

  • ONE – Fatty there is not fit to hold down a job anywhere, and likely could have been fired for theft from Baskin Robbins. So instead of getting on the treadmill and getting a job, he decides that his idleness is worth $10 million, which if he gets will afford him a life of luxury and further idleness.

TWO – the only ones more disgusting and VILE than Anthony Rector (I will not even play on his last name) are the attorneys. Not only are they clogging up the courts with frivolous lawsuits, but they are purging themselves. Unfortunately like insider trading claims against Congress lawyers can legally lie all they want.


Part of the lawsuit claims the television announcers said:
“Announcers like Dan Shulman and John Kruck [sic] unleashed avalanche of disparaging words against the person of and concerning the plaintiff. These words, include but not limited to ‘stupor, fatty, unintelligent, stupid’ knowing and intending the same to be heard and listened to by millions of people all over the world.”

One Problem. There are recordings of the television show where the announcers said NOTHING close to that. But take this to court in the hopes Major League Baseball is so big they will give this guy his weight in gold to go away.

Lawyers are ruining this country

20 minutes goes by from the time one batter strikes out to the next gets his chance. How could one under the age of 7 or over the age of 30 not fall asleep? So obviously someone with that sort of metabolism isn’t going to make it 9 innings. I am surprised that he didn’t have a pillow with him.

  • THREE – I am also a piece of crap. I sort of made fun of him when I don’t know if he has a medical condition. I am told that 99.9% of people who are morbidly obese suffer from glandular problems and it can’t be helped no matter how many calories they cut back on, or how much exercise they partake in.

The reality is Monsanto shares some blame with their GMO food. McDonald’s has some blame for forcing us to super-size through peer pressure at the drive up window. Etc. I mean …who can help but “Go Large” when that unknown voice at the speaker window says, “Would you like to GO LARGE for only $0.50 more?” I can not help but feel compelled to scream back, “I am not cheap…can I go super large for $3 more!

This poor guys is truly a victim and entitled to every penny of $10 million for having been given that awful lot in life. He should be given at least 60% of his ticket price back too since he must have missed 60% of the game and shouldn’t have to pay for the portion he didn’t see. Maybe the ballpark should counter sue for only charging him for entrance to a ball game when the plaintiff was in fact using the stadium as a Holiday Inn.