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Option Trading Newsletter: January 27, 2014

Random Walk Trading.com
Tuesday
January 27, 2015
1-855-RWT-0008

Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC.  
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Closing Prices From Yesterday
Company News
Two seats left of Vegas session – Feb 19-21
The year-end book for “POT – A Year in Review” went to the printers today
EARNINGS
Today’s Number(s)
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
Sunday night/Monday morning
The day started well before […]

By |January 27th, 2015|Uncategorized|Comments Off

Option Trading Newsletter: January 27, 2015

Random Walk Trading.com
Monday
January 26, 2015
1-855-RWT-0008

Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC.
___ ___ ___ ___ ____
Closing Prices From Yesterday
Today’s Number(s)
NO NUMBERS TODAY
Yesterday and Today
Yesterday
Humor. It was the most quiet day of the year until 2:00pm eastern. As a matter of fact it ranks up where with one of the most […]

By |January 27th, 2015|Uncategorized|Comments Off

Option Trading Newsletter: January 23, 2015

Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC.
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Closing Prices From Yesterday
The Real trading year likely began today.
I expect new highs in the near future with a few strong months, then a MAJOR correction by the summer. All the countries in the world are playing games trying to outsmart and “tinker” with economies instead of allowing the free market to determine where things should be.
All the countries are shooting all their financial bullets over nothing. When that currency is really needed the well will run dry. History has proven that financial engineering is as close to a science as the Ouji board. There are no free lunches, and creating anew (asset) bubble to inflate your way out of a previously created government bubble (housing) that bailed us out of yet an earlier government created bubble (and so on) never ends well. It just takes longer for the hangover to appear than common sense would dictate. There is money to be made on the upside, but real fortunes are going to be lost (and a few made) on the downside. Think 1987, but without a bounce.
Company News
First: POT Class
Scott says it is (in his opinion) 90+% likely that the real trading will now begin for the year. Random Walk has no opinion. Previously POT was demonstrating put on wide, condors all over the math, dominating as much of the strike price chess board as possible. POT people….he wants you to know he is now going to slowly build up steam and kick this in gear.
Second: Vegas Timing
This could not have happened at a better time for the Vegas class. We were a little concerned that this market was going to be stupid for another month.
Today’s Number(s)
[…]

By |January 23rd, 2015|Morning Update|Comments Off

Option Trading Newsletter: January 22, 2015

Closing Prices From Yesterday

IMPORTANT Events and Facts.
Mario Draghi is speaking today at 8:30am eastern about bond buying for the ECB.
Canada lowered its interest rates yesterday.
The markets have had a range of at least 200 points every day this year.
The markets have not had this much volatility since 2011.

 
Yesterday
Psychotic on a […]

By |January 22nd, 2015|Morning Update|Comments Off

Option Trading Newsletter: January 21, 2015

Closing Prices From Yesterday

Today’s Number(s)

Yesterday
The markets are still nuts, but in a more muted way. The market opened up 70 points and proceeded to sell off. While selling off we made a low in the Dow of a net change of -166. From there we climbed right back up despite oil slowly falling. Oil closed down $2.46, and yet the markets made it back to unchanged.
After hours NFLX and IBM came out with earnings. IBM was average which caused the stock to run up $3 and then down -$3 (a range of $6).
Gold has made it up almost $100 this moth closing near $1,300.
TODAY
I am getting close to coming out of the January retirement. This market has the earmarks of wanting to go higher. Oil has been a lag on the market for months. Yesterday oil took a big drop of $2.46, about as big as oil ever falls in one day, and the markets worked their way back up. This has my gut telling me that there is a lot of buying underneath.
One fear the markets have to get over is what happens in Europe on Thursday. And given Dhragi’s ability to disappoint every time he opens his mouth, people are obviously cautious about getting over exaggerated. […]

By |January 21st, 2015|Uncategorized|Comments Off

Option Trading Newsletter: January 19, 2015

Random Walk Trading.com
Tuesday
January 20, 2015
1-855-RWT-0008
oday’s update is mostly the same as yesterday’s with the exception
of the “TODAY” and “POT” section. We were closed yesterday due to
the MLK holiday that the rest of the world doesn’t observe.
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Closing Prices From Yesterday
Today’s Number(s)
Yesterday
More craziness. The markets opened up a little, […]

By |January 19th, 2015|Uncategorized|Comments Off

Option Trading Newsletter:January 19, 2015

1-855-RWT-0008

Correction: I mistakenly forgot to mention in the Morning Update that the market is closed today in observance of Martin Luther King day.

Closing Prices From Yesterday
Today’s Number(s)

Yesterday
More craziness. The markets opened up a little, fell and then ran higher. At the end of the day the Dow was up 190 and oil was at about $49. The markets were down 226 points for the week.
TODAY
I have no idea. I expect more see-sawing for much of the week until this market finally makes a decision on what it wants to do. January months are hard to get a feel for. Sometimes they start out the whole year right from the start – but that is seldom. Other times they scare people to death that the end is near (like last year). Sometimes they do nothing.
[…]

By |January 18th, 2015|Uncategorized|Comments Off

Option Trading Newsletter: January 16, 2015

Great Morning!
Closing Prices From Yesterday

Today’s Number(s)

Yesterday
History was made.

Switzerland detached itself from the Euro. This is historic and forced the currency to move down as much as 20% at one point. The Swiss Frank (CHF) has been attached to a fixed rate of 1.20 to the Euro; however, in a unexpected announcement Switzerland wanted away from the Euro. With the concerns over the EU easing combined with a Judge’s decision to let the EU buy bonds Switzerland felt it could not take the risk anymore.

Oil fell a little over $2.00 a barrel and gold ran up 2% to 1,265 because of this news.

The news also rattled the US markets as investors/traders spent the day see-sawing the markets up and down trying to determine what effects this will have on the US.

Bond dove again, this time the 10 year bond closed at 1.775% yield. This is insanely low, but the move does make “temporary” sense when compared to European rates. The Swiss, for example, have mortgage rates of 1.8% on 10 year fixed home loans.

– In all it was just another Frustrating January day that made no sense, and the markets could not figure out what to make of things. But this creates
TODAY
Thank God I’m Flat
The 6th day in a row down? At 11”00pm eastern futures were down -18 implying a -150 point move, yet oil was up $0.50. Europe is all over the place after the Switzerland currency issue as traders try to figure out what the next surprise is going to be.
In short….I haven’t got a clue.
[…]

By |January 16th, 2015|Morning Update|Comments Off

Option Trading Newsletter: January 15, 2015

Great Morning!
Closing Prices From Yesterday

Today’s Number(s)

Yesterday
20,000 leagues under the sea, rather 200 points below the previous close.
E-mini futures were down 10 going into the open. The pre-market economic numbers of retails sales and December import prices disappointed so much that the E-minis fell another $10 points (a total of $20) right before the open. On the open the Dow fell 200+ points and picked up steam as oil backed off a little.
Then news that JPMorgan’s earnings were going to disappoint because of lawyer fees and accounts preferring online trading (to expensive brokers). This news was too much for the market as JPM fell $3.50 which helped send Dow down 350 points at the low.
At 2:00pm eastern the Beige book came out as a non-event, but oil started to run higher. I don’t know if it was the same culprits (Goldman Sac) that stated yesterday oil was going to $42 and sitting there for months, but oil ran up $2.40 at 2:00pm. This blew the Eminis up from down -$32 to down -$12. The Dow ran up 170 points from there.
Interestingly the after-hours crude market temporarily saw oil get to $50 even. So much for $42, huh? I honestly don’t know if I am angered or jealous of those who tell the entire world to do the opposite of what I want to do. Oh well, all I know is I am glad I no longer believe word they say. The last time they spoke of oil they were telling people to buy oil in the 130’s.
TODAY
I have no idea. I seem to be out of Lithium which controls my understanding of this bi-polar market. We were down over 650 points from Tuesday’s highs yesterday. When the market is ranging (in both directions ) almost 4%, no one can guess where we are going. I would say I am starting to take a bullish stance but I am not committed quite yet.
[…]

By |January 15th, 2015|Morning Update|Comments Off

Option Trading Newsletter: January 14, 2015

Great Morning!
Closing Prices From Yesterday

Today’s Number(s)

Yesterday
Absolute mania. The Dow opened up 282 points and appeared to be happy there. Then when a measly little company like KB Homes announces that their profit margins are down a little, it took the whole market with it. It turned out that the rally was not as as strong and real as it appeared. The market’s selling increased momentum until the Dow was down 142 points, when oil came in to save the day. A late run higher in oil prices saved the Dow from further escalation down which I was concerned could escalate. At the end of the day it was a non-event. Just a lot of coffee and stress.

TODAY
I have given up trying to make sense of this. Oil is still playing a pivotal role in the markets, and is trading down a decent amount in after hours. This would imply a weak opening, but it is hard to tell. We are 400 points off the month’s lows and 400 points away from 18,000, and I can’t begin to guess which number will be hit first.

[…]

By |January 14th, 2015|Morning Update|Comments Off