Option Trading Newsletter: October 24, 2014

Friday

October 24, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-10-23 at 12.54.17 AM

Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)

Screen Shot 2014-09-29 at 8.23.18 AM

Great Morning !

Closing Prices From Yesterday

Earnings Today

Below is a list of some of the bigger earnings announcements today

Capture4

Don’t Worry – The Bull is Most Likely Just Taking a Nap.

Weeding out people before huge profits are made is what the market does best.

Today’s Number(s)

NO NUMBERS

Yesterday and TodayScreen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.24 AM

Yesterday

WOW…It is official, the market fall is over and we are back to BULL MODE. Though we were up over 300 Dow points, we did pull back slightly to close up 216. The SPX was as high has 1961.95 but backed off 11 points to 1950.82. Most predominately was crude which staged its first real run higher by closing up $1.50.

TODAY

I have no idea. We could have a day of pull back as we have run up 9% in the last couple weeks, but overall we will see the old 17,350 number in the Dow broken in very little time.

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.32 AM

Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details.

Check Email For POT update.Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.44 AM

Screen Shot 2014-09-05 at 9.30.03 AM

##########

Attorney Stuff

Screen Shot 2014-10-23 at 1.36.30 AM

DISCLAIMER (Seriously!) All data above is provided for informational purposes only. Random Walk makes no guarantee as to the accuracy of the data.

Trading is almost as much fun as black jack in Vegas, but without all the annoying distractions of free drinks, Broadway shows, gorgeous people with low morals, and free buffets. It also has about the same odds of success, so when you lose all your money you wont have to walk past a smiling pit boss. Even Bruce Wayne lost everything with options in The Dark Knight Rises, and Superman keeps his day job at the Daily Planet newspaper.

We have the utmost respect for our attorneys who tell us any attempt to trade is throwing money out the window, and investing is risky business (still a great movie). Past performance doesn’t mean a thing. The future is even scarier. Random Walk and everyone associated with it promises absolutely nothing. We guarantee nothing. We wont ever do anything right unless it is an accident.

Random Walk only provides education (and a great cup of Starbucks if you visit our office). If you want advice please consult an attorney, licensed broker, Joe Kearnan, tax consultant, investment adviser, etc. Random Walk, LLC is full of morons, dolts, has-been(s), chromosome damaged individuals, thieves, losers, and carnival barkers. Any attempt to find a semblance of intelligence or integrity in Random Walk would be a waste of time. We will sell products, but advise against buying them. We Do Not Give Advice.

When reading this you acknowledge that you agree to hold harmless Random Walk, LLC, its employees, independent contractors, authors, managers, owner(s), spouses, children, cousins, friends, bail bondsmen, and favorite bartender. In fact, you agree to grow up, accept some responsibility for your own actions, and stop believing the media that sells you on how nothing is your fault. You further agree in the antiquated and lost values that America is the land of opportunity and not the land of handouts. You agree any loss in the markets is a result of your own actions as we told you NOT to trade without consulting someone other than us.

All paper trades are SOLELY for example and to illustrate how certain strategies could perform without the benefit of hindsight and back-testing. You agree NOT to trade based on anything we say, do, write, advertise, etc. If we were smart we would be teaching high-school math and making the really big bucks. You agree to abide by the laws of your country and that it is legal to accept this transmission.

Every attempt has been made to ensure accuracy, but we are clueless. As a result it would be foolish and impossible to assure the accuracy of any numbers and/or come close to writing a sentence that is grammatically correct. You agree not to get on our case emotionally, physically, spiritually (no Voodoo dolls please) or legally when we screw up. We are doing our best to keep up with evolution, but it is a fast race and we are falling behind. If any of this stuff is too hard to accept please let us know and we will remove you from our mailing list and short term memory.

Random Walk deeply cares about each and every student. We try to keep the selling of products to a minimum. We believe our students are a result of attraction rather than promotion. This does NOT mean that the more attractive you are, the more we promote ourselves (in general).

Our products are written ONLY by floor traders, fund managers and retired floor traders. But that really doesn’t mean much. They are expensive and unique. That does NOT mean they (materials) come on a tablet of concrete from Mt. Sinai. . If you are still reading this, you will likely be the first to have gotten this far. No guarantee for accuracy is made. Nothing we do is audited and we make no promise of accuracy.

Because of the proprietary nature of our materials and the ease of electronic copying, all sales are final. There are far too many people who have no problem stealing our materials and putting them on torrents or copying them. These are the same low-life, selfish, whining, half-wit hypocrites that would cry like a newborn with a wet diaper if someone stole their car radio. They have to pay for our materials before stealing them, and live with their karma (and our legal team). Yes, we have caught a few and now have one person working on detective work solely.

Sales are far from our largest concern. If you are a whiner, complainer, or generally unhappy with life please go to someone else in this industry who values money over happiness. We can point you in the direction of other firms that only care about the bottom and top line. Jerry Springer can also point you in the right direction. Besides whiners are a total distraction from the awesome group of students we are fortunate to have. We are truly blessed and thank them (provided that is fine with our lawyers). “Thank yous” are only handed out in countries where legal and void where prohibited. If your country does not allow “thank yous” please refrain from accepting it. This disclaimer is copyright material and not a joke.

Option Trading Newsletter: October 23, 2014

Thursday

October 23, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-10-23 at 12.54.17 AM

Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)

Screen Shot 2014-09-29 at 8.23.18 AM

Great Morning !

Closing Prices From Yesterday

Screen Shot 2014-10-23 at 1.02.04 AM

Earnings Today

Below is a list of some of the bigger earnings announcements today

Screen Shot 2014-10-23 at 1.29.18 AM

Capture4

Don’t Worry – The Bull is Most Likely Just Taking a Nap.

Weeding out people before huge profits are made is what the market does best.

Today’s Number(s)

Screen Shot 2014-10-23 at 1.07.44 AM

Yesterday and TodayScreen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.24 AM

Yesterday

The markets were fine, and a little bullish, all day until crude inventories came out. Do NOT be fooled by the media talking about the one person shot (I am not counting the idiot who went in with a gun and was killed. He deserved lead poisoning) at Canada’s Parliament. It was NOTHING.

Look at crude inventories coming out at 10:30 eastern and then the market. As crude fell so did the markets. NOTHING ELSE CAUSED IT. Look below.

Below are the the numbers for Crude (top) and the SPX (bottom). The graphs are not lined up perfectly which is why I inserted the black line at 10:30 when Crude came out with their numbers

Screen Shot 2014-10-23 at 1.10.05 AM

Screen Shot 2014-10-23 at 1.11.02 AM

TODAY

Initial jobless claims are coming out but should not be a bid deal. What is of more importance is the Chines numbers coming out and what OIL does in the morning. Oil closed at its lows down $2.14 right at its support of $80.50. If we fall below $80 it could be trouble for the markets.

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.32 AM

Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details.

Check Email For POT update.Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.44 AM

Screen Shot 2014-09-05 at 9.30.03 AM

##########

Attorney Stuff

Screen Shot 2014-10-23 at 1.36.30 AM

DISCLAIMER (Seriously!) All data above is provided for informational purposes only. Random Walk makes no guarantee as to the accuracy of the data.

Trading is almost as much fun as black jack in Vegas, but without all the annoying distractions of free drinks, Broadway shows, gorgeous people with low morals, and free buffets. It also has about the same odds of success, so when you lose all your money you wont have to walk past a smiling pit boss. Even Bruce Wayne lost everything with options in The Dark Knight Rises, and Superman keeps his day job at the Daily Planet newspaper.

We have the utmost respect for our attorneys who tell us any attempt to trade is throwing money out the window, and investing is risky business (still a great movie). Past performance doesn’t mean a thing. The future is even scarier. Random Walk and everyone associated with it promises absolutely nothing. We guarantee nothing. We wont ever do anything right unless it is an accident.

Random Walk only provides education (and a great cup of Starbucks if you visit our office). If you want advice please consult an attorney, licensed broker, Joe Kearnan, tax consultant, investment adviser, etc. Random Walk, LLC is full of morons, dolts, has-been(s), chromosome damaged individuals, thieves, losers, and carnival barkers. Any attempt to find a semblance of intelligence or integrity in Random Walk would be a waste of time. We will sell products, but advise against buying them. We Do Not Give Advice.

When reading this you acknowledge that you agree to hold harmless Random Walk, LLC, its employees, independent contractors, authors, managers, owner(s), spouses, children, cousins, friends, bail bondsmen, and favorite bartender. In fact, you agree to grow up, accept some responsibility for your own actions, and stop believing the media that sells you on how nothing is your fault. You further agree in the antiquated and lost values that America is the land of opportunity and not the land of handouts. You agree any loss in the markets is a result of your own actions as we told you NOT to trade without consulting someone other than us.

All paper trades are SOLELY for example and to illustrate how certain strategies could perform without the benefit of hindsight and back-testing. You agree NOT to trade based on anything we say, do, write, advertise, etc. If we were smart we would be teaching high-school math and making the really big bucks. You agree to abide by the laws of your country and that it is legal to accept this transmission.

Every attempt has been made to ensure accuracy, but we are clueless. As a result it would be foolish and impossible to assure the accuracy of any numbers and/or come close to writing a sentence that is grammatically correct. You agree not to get on our case emotionally, physically, spiritually (no Voodoo dolls please) or legally when we screw up. We are doing our best to keep up with evolution, but it is a fast race and we are falling behind. If any of this stuff is too hard to accept please let us know and we will remove you from our mailing list and short term memory.

Random Walk deeply cares about each and every student. We try to keep the selling of products to a minimum. We believe our students are a result of attraction rather than promotion. This does NOT mean that the more attractive you are, the more we promote ourselves (in general).

Our products are written ONLY by floor traders, fund managers and retired floor traders. But that really doesn’t mean much. They are expensive and unique. That does NOT mean they (materials) come on a tablet of concrete from Mt. Sinai. . If you are still reading this, you will likely be the first to have gotten this far. No guarantee for accuracy is made. Nothing we do is audited and we make no promise of accuracy.

Because of the proprietary nature of our materials and the ease of electronic copying, all sales are final. There are far too many people who have no problem stealing our materials and putting them on torrents or copying them. These are the same low-life, selfish, whining, half-wit hypocrites that would cry like a newborn with a wet diaper if someone stole their car radio. They have to pay for our materials before stealing them, and live with their karma (and our legal team). Yes, we have caught a few and now have one person working on detective work solely.

Sales are far from our largest concern. If you are a whiner, complainer, or generally unhappy with life please go to someone else in this industry who values money over happiness. We can point you in the direction of other firms that only care about the bottom and top line. Jerry Springer can also point you in the right direction. Besides whiners are a total distraction from the awesome group of students we are fortunate to have. We are truly blessed and thank them (provided that is fine with our lawyers). “Thank yous” are only handed out in countries where legal and void where prohibited. If your country does not allow “thank yous” please refrain from accepting it. This disclaimer is copyright material and not a joke.

Options Trading Newsletter: October 22, 2014

Wednesday

October 22, 2014

Capture11

Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)

Screen Shot 2014-09-29 at 8.23.18 AM

Great Morning !

Closing Prices From Yesterdaypot1

Earnings Today

Below is a list of some of the bigger earnings announcements today

pot2

Capture4

Don’t Worry – The Bull is Most Likely Just Taking a Nap.

Weeding out people before huge profits are made is what the market does best.

Today’s Number(s)pot3

Yesterday and TodayScreen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.24 AM

Yesterday

The SPX was up 37 points and it felt like a dead and boring day. Had there been a negative sign in front of that number every analyst on television would have been saying that the sky is falling. As I stated all the way down to SPX 1820, this is NOT the end. The end goes faster and out of nowhere. It is not because of Ebola, ISIS or oil prices. I must admit that the end is taking a lot longer to get here than I though. But it is coming.

TODAY

Be careful around 10:30am when the crude inventories come out. For some unexplained reason crude falling was a big consideration when the markets fell two weeks ago. Since 1904 was not even played with (other than closing right on the number for one day) it appears that the bull is back with greater force than previously. Can you believe we are just 400 points away from Dow 17,000? And had IBM not weighed on the markets it would only be 250 points away.Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.32 AM

Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details.

Check Email For POT update.Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.44 AM

Screen Shot 2014-09-05 at 9.30.03 AM

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Option Trading Newsletter: October 21, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.36.35 AM

1-855-RWT-0008

Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)

ISIS, EBOLA, OCTOBER FEARS, AND ELECTIONS

Screen Shot 2014-09-29 at 8.23.18 AM

Great Morning

Closing Prices From Yesterday

Screen Shot 2014-10-21 at 9.09.05 AM

Earnings Today

Below is a list of some of the bigger earnings announcements today

Screen Shot 2014-10-21 at 9.09.17 AM

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.05 AM

Don’t Worry – The Bull is Most Likely Just Taking a Nap.
Weeding out people before huge profits are made is what the market does best.

Today’s Number(s)

Screen Shot 2014-10-21 at 9.09.29 AM

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.24 AM

Yesterday

The Dow closed up 19 points despite IBM falling 12.95 on a bad earnings miss. IBM being down 12.95 is equivalent to 91 Dow points, so the market would have been up a lot more had IBM been unchanged. This is proven in the SPX which was up 17.25 to close RIGHT AT the 1904 number I spoke of yesterday in the morning update.

After the close AAPL came out with record iPhone sales and the stock was up $1. Keep in mind that the stock was up $2.09 going into earnings so the real move was about $3. We will see how it really opens today.

TODAY

This is an important day with the SPX closing exactly at the old 200 day moving average we went through on the big drop. To me this feels like a see-saw and the market could go in either direction for a while. We have to see how the market opens in the morning.

China’s economic numbers came out at 10:00pm eastern and apparently they were not great as the E-minis began to sell off and at down 6.50 at 12:30pm with the Dow futures down 56. We shall see.

Continue reading

Option Trading Newsletter: October 20, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.36.35 AM

1-855-RWT-0008

Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)

ISIS, EBOLA, OCTOBER FEARS, AND ELECTIONS

Screen Shot 2014-09-29 at 8.23.18 AM

Great Morning

Closing Prices From Yesterday

Screen Shot 2014-10-20 at 8.19.08 AM

Earnings Today

Below is a list of some of the bigger earnings announcements today

Screen Shot 2014-10-20 at 8.19.17 AM

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.05 AM

Don’t Worry – The Bull is Most Likely Just Taking a Nap.
Weeding out people before huge profits are made is what the market does best.

Today’s Number(s)

NO NUMBERS TODAY

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.24 AM

Yesterday

A big up day on Friday after a large gap opening. What is unusual about this rally is that the media is claiming that it was because gas prices were going up and interest rates were going up. Think about that insane explanation for a minute. In reality it went up because it was over sold and we have to test 1904 in the SPX, the 200 day moving average we broke through like butter. Sometimes there are no explanations and making up one is more stupid than admitting you don’t know why.

TODAY

We are most likely going to test that 1904 number. I doubt that the markets move, and stay, above it. POT people, you will be getting an update as well that goes into my game plan at that number. But I really believe that the market has to test that number to make a determination of which way to go from here. Had we not had the bounce on Friday I would have suspected we continue to fall, but since that bounce the market is feeling for walls to move along like a blind person in a new home.

Continue reading

Option Trading Newsletter: October 17, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.36.35 AM

1-855-RWT-0008

Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)

ISIS, EBOLA, OCTOBER FEARS, AND ELECTIONS

Screen Shot 2014-09-29 at 8.23.18 AM

Great Morning

Closing Prices From Yesterday

MU10172014I1

Earnings Today

Below is a list of some of the bigger earnings announcements today

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.05 AM

Today’s Number(s)

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.24 AM

Yesterday

A roller coaster ride was the sensation people experienced yesterday with the Dow opening up down 207 points and then bouncing. By lunch the market was still gyrating around; however, the ranges were smaller and slower moving than the previous two weeks.

Some of the bounce occurred when one of the Fed members suggested/hinted that more bond buying would be appropriate if the selling continues. Despite those lullabies to the market the bonds fell pretty good with the TLT closing down -0.78 at 121.75. Remember that the highs were 127.68 on Tuesday, so the TLT is down almost $6 from there.

TODAY

Probably a bounce up. We will see if it sustains or is just a false door. Remember that in the past 16 drops we have had over the last 3-4 years the first move up was the best buying opportunity in the world. Yesterday we saw the E-minis up 21 points for a bit before selling back off to close up $5.

Continue reading

Option Trading Newsletter: October 16, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.36.35 AM

1-855-RWT-0008

Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)

ISIS, EBOLA, OCTOBER FEARS, AND ELECTIONS

Screen Shot 2014-09-29 at 8.23.18 AM

Great Morning

Closing Prices From Yesterday

Earnings Today

Below is a list of some of the bigger earnings announcements today

A LOT OF BANKS REPORT TODAY

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.05 AM

Today’s Number(s)

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.24 AM

Yesterday

A WILD RIDE. The Dow opened down 362 points on what appeared to be forced liquidation. As that was going on the TLT opened up $5.80 in what also looking like forced liquidation. Immediately after the open the Dow climbed from the gutter to a negative -108 points (or up 254) within 30 minutes.

After that the CDC decided to hold a press conference to prove what people feared- they are clueless. Immediately after they finished pulling the Ole Sgt. Schultz the Dow fell 150 points and was down 459 points.

After sitting at the lows and the Dow falling below 16,000 the sellers dried up and the market staged a walk back up the stairs. With the Dow down 155 at the end of the day the market backed off a little to close down 173 points.

After cash closed NFLX dumped a bomb on the markets with poor earnings causing the stock to fall 26% in after hours trading. The E-minis followed falling $10 points in the 4:00 to 4:15pm eastern time period. Obviously the cash and Dow stocks were closed so they didn’t fall, but would have fallen 70 points on the news. The Nasdaq fell1% on that news.


So if E-minis are unchanged the Dow will be down about 70 points to catch up. Please adjust accordingly in your head when you see the Dow under or out perform the market.

TODAY

I am starting to get close to thinking the worst is over. The Dow did NOT like being down below 16,000, and the TLT move was what I would bet big money on being a short squeeze and/or forced liquidation. Crude didn’t like be at $80 and bounced.

We have a lot of bank stocks out with earnings today before the open. If there are no negative surprises I think we can shrug off the NFLX disappointment. We will see.

Positives –

  • Octobers are usually up months, even when they start out down.

  • Earnings are coming out and there are not a lot of big negatives, other than NFLX.

  • People are exiting European investments and have to put the money somewhere.

  • People were looking for a drop that has never come. Well, it came. And with bonds yielding never ending low yields who would want to be in a 30 year for 3% or a 10 year for 1.98%?

Negatives

  • Russia is barking again and making threats.

  • People are shaken up and we didn’t hit any really crappy hard bottom. Yes 450 down was big, but that is really only a 3% drop. We had 500 down days many times.

Continue reading

Option Trading Newsletter: October 15, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.36.35 AM

1-855-RWT-0008

Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)

ISIS, EBOLA, OCTOBER FEARS, AND ELECTIONS

Screen Shot 2014-09-29 at 8.23.18 AM

Great Morning

Closing Prices From Yesterday

Earnings Today

Below is a list of some of the bigger earnings announcements today

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.05 AM

Today’s Number(s)

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.24 AM

Yesterday

Nothing…
The market attempted to stage a come back towards 1904 (200 day moving average in the SPX) before a late day sell-off came back in. This has been the model for the last 3 – 4 days and it squashed down a 100+ Dow gain to negative territory.

Crude Oil fell almost $4 after inventory numbers came out. In addition Saudi Arabia decided it was going to sell oil in the market place competitively instead of running to OPEC to attempt price fixing. This has been a major drop in price, but even at 82.prices are high. Remember that the average price of gas when Bush left office was $2.52. The only thing surprising is that all the turmoil in the Middle East is concerning the stock market but not the oil market.

The US dollar was strong against other major currencies again after taking a short break. We are still below the SPX 200 Day moving average and the channel for the last 3 years.

TODAY

Today is the first day of the week with economic numbers out. The E-minis at 8:00pm are poised for $7 higher and Dow futures 62 points higher. INTEL had earnings after the close and they barely beat. The news is mixed on if this is good or bad based on who you as (as demonstrated by headlines below). But it is enough to show signs of optimism for the markets after the tech sector got beaten down so bad last week.

There is certainly a bearish trend going on, and the fact that yesterday’s bounce could not sustain itself is not positive. Yet we did not have any economic numbers or positive news to fuel the rally. We will see what is in store for the markets after bank earnings come out today, and the economic numbers hit.

It doesn’t matter what the numbers are (good or bad), but the numbers will be the catalyst for the move that is coming. Despite the markets being up $7.50 in the E-minis I think that will come back down. People are scared. But when super scared, then I am getting long.

Continue reading

Option Trading Newsletter: October 14, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.36.35 AM

1-855-RWT-0008

Prepared by the good people at Random Walk, LLC. (and Scott)

ISIS, EBOLA, OCTOBER FEARS, AND ELECTIONS

Screen Shot 2014-09-29 at 8.23.18 AM

Great Morning

Closing Prices From Yesterday

If anyone is watching the markets more than we are, it is politicians. They have NOTHING going for them other than the Dow as at record highs. If this market keeps falling it will hurt every incumbent – both republican and democrat.

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.05 AM

NO NUMBERS

Screen Shot 2014-08-21 at 7.37.24 AM

Yesterday

Kaboom Part V

Another down day. This time the media was again fishing for reasons and they came up with……ta da…..”EBOLA”. First they are telling us it is nothing to worry about and it is as hard to get it as getting AIDS, and then they make it sound like it is going to be the Black Plague.

The truth is….We closed 2 points above the 1904 SPX 200 day moving average. We vacillated around it all day with traders giving the markets every chance in the world to run higher. When it could not bounce people threw in the towel and sold everything off in the last 45 minutes.

It was NOT because of Ebola, ISIS, the elections, flying saucers on Mars, Yellen, the Fed, China, Russia or the dengue fever.

Below is the 3-year chart I have been showing everyone in POT for the last year+. We broke through the 3-year trend line that took this market to stratospheric levels and a pullback was due. It is normal and even healthy.

TODAY

Listen to the sound of confusion……..

Who knows what is going to happen today. We are oversold in the short run, but could lose another 4% over the short run before we have washed out all the people who are long the market but don’t have the brains or stomach to be in it. I would say that a bounce is needed to scare everyone or all the bears (me included) will have too much fun in the downdraft. The market’s job is to make itself as confusing as possible, and if we keep falling without an up day then the market is not doing its job.

As a matter of fact I tried to sell put spreads on the close in POT but was not filled. I would love to see us open 200-300 points lower. Then you will hear the sound of laughter. But this probably wont happen and I will be doing LIQUID (Random Walk text on adjusting winning and losing trades) adjustments to wiggle out of things.

Why would may actually be at a bottom?

Continue reading