Morning Update: July 31, 2014

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Remember, it [the market] is designed to fool most of the people most of the time. Jesse Livermore

A Very Happy Day!

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THIS WEEK’S EARNINGS

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This is not all of the earnings, rather a small portion that Random Walk has been watching in POT.

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Yesterday And today

Yesterday

Great numbers yesterday started the market up 70 points, but it later fell about an hour into the session. GDP for the 2nd quarter came in at 4% while the ADP payroll numbers came in at 218K jobs created. Now these are not executive type jobs being created, so if the market creates 218,000 new Chipolte workers I am more inclined to be frightened than excited.

Janet Yellen came out at 2:00 with her Baby Bear speech – not too much inflation…not too little growth….just right economy. The caused NO reaction in the markets and we sat near unchanged the remainder of the day. Despite Yellen’s comments the bonds had a huge down day (rates higher).

Today

We have a lot of important economic numbers out today and even more tomorrow. This is a busy numbers week. Don’t really have much else to say.

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POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.

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Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details.

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Too True To Be Funny

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Attorney Stuff

 

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Trading is almost as much fun as black jack in Vegas, but without all the annoying distractions of free drinks, Broadway shows, gorgeous people with low morals, and free buffets. It also has about the same odds of success, so when you lose all your money you wont have to walk past a smiling pit boss. Even Bruce Wayne lost everything with options in The Dark Knight Rises, and Superman keeps his day job at the DailyPlanet newspaper.

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Morning Update: July 30, 2014

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Random Walk’s Motto:

Loving our students like family allows us the energy to go beyond any other firm and your expectations.

A Very Happy Day!

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This is not all of the earnings, rather a small portion that Random Walk has been watching in POT.

yat

Yesterday and Today

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Yesterday

A new record was only 100 Dow points away until Obama announced that he was adding more economic sanctions against Russia, but said it was not the start of a cold war. I guess this is just a “chilly war”, and one that was unnecessary, avoidable, and would not have taken place if Putin was even slightly concerned about Obama’s sense of responsibility to allies.

So we were reversed over 140 points. And if the media steals my “Chilly War” or the “President Who Went Into the Cold” lines, let me know.

Today

ADP NUMBER and FED ANNOUNCEMENT on rates at 2:00pm eastern

Who knows? I give up trying to understand anything until life as I know it goes back to normal. When bad news causes the market to go down, not up. When our allies are protected by the White House, not terrorist states. When the threat of Russia not sending gas to Germany causes gas to go up, not down.

The good news is the implied volatility levels are finally inching back to normal. Ya Ho ! This could become easier again! But we will see after the Fed announcement at 2. 

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POT is held each Wednesday night at 7:00pm eastern.

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Contract the office at 1- 855 – RWT – 0008 for more details.

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Too True To Be Funny

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Morning Update: July 29, 2014

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Random Walk’s Motto:

Loving our students like family allows us the energy to go beyond any other firm and your expectations.

Should start the <1% move clock again?

yesterday

A Very Happy Day!Screen Shot 2014-07-29 at 3.19.53 AM

RW Today

Today’s Number(s)

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This Weeks EarningsScreen Shot 2014-07-29 at 3.20.58 AM

This is not all of the earnings, rather a small portion that Random Walk has been watching in POT.

Yesterday and Today

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Yesterday

A typical day again. Bad news hit the market before the open so sellers came in briefly. When they shot all their bullets they market went back up. HLF was up after its earnings.

 

Today

Today is as much of a concern as is Wednesday. In the morning we will have the ADP jobs report, a MUCH MORE accurate number than something the government creates. This will set the tone for the day up to 2:00pm. At that time the FOMC releases its minutes and decides how much (if any) it is going to taper. Recall when Yellen spoke last she was hawkish and stuck with her plan.

Now the geniuses wanting air time on CNBC (something I refuse to ever do) are prophesying that the the Fed will pick up the taper faster than originally planned. Hmm. Let’s see. Does Yellen want to deviate with her plan that only has a couple months left in it (after 6 years going) to be cool? It would mess up the markets that are at all time highs, and that might mean she has to put more money in after taking too much out. Yeah, that’s the ticket. Every new chairman wants a crash on their hands before the name on their desk has been changed. Don’t listen to idiots. She will taper $10 billion this month like she has been doing every month, and NOT deviate. There is NO reason or upside to deviate.

So if the market is selling off because the rumors are that the Fed is going to taper the last of it this week, I can’t think of a better buying opportunity. 

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Morning Update: July 28, 2014

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Random Walk’s Motto:

Loving our students like family allows us the energy to go beyond any other firm and your expectations.

Should start the <1% move clock again?

 

yesterday

A Very Happy Day!Screen Shot 2014-07-28 at 4.57.19 AM

RW Today

Today’s Number(s)

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This is not all of the earnings, rather a small portion that Random Walk has been watching in POT.

Yesterday and Today

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Yesterday

It looked worse than it was. AMZN and VISA reported earnings on Friday and did roughly 95% of the damage to the Dow. Other than those two names the Dow would have been down 40ish points.

Again the markets ignored the new news that Russia is actually firing into the Ukraine, and things are not limited to the pro-Russian separatists. Mr. Kerry managed to tell Putin he was a liar, which I am sure emotionally devastated Putin. Kerry calling someone a liar is like Jerry Seinfeld calling me a lousy actor. Except I suspect Putin takes it as a compliment. 

Today

Could see some selling on the open as people get a little nervous that 17,000 is not holding as well as expected. We are only 191 points from all-time highs and the action doesn’t feel (to me) like anything more than weak hands getting out. I would have to believe that this is a buying opportunity. 

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Morning Update: July 25, 2014

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Random Walk’s Motto:

Loving our students like family allows us the energy to go beyond any other firm and your expectations.

yesterday

A Very Happy Day!Screen Shot 2014-07-25 at 3.29.05 AM

RW Today

Today’s Number(s)

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This is not all of the earnings, rather a small portion that Random Walk has been watching in POT.

Yesterday and Today

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Yesterday

More boredom and quiet. Just hanging out at all time highs and doing nothing. 

Today

Small earnings and small economic numbers. The only thing really negative for the markets was Amazon’s earnings. Oh yeah…..by the way…at the risk of sounding political…..RUSSIA IS SHOOTING MISSLES INTO THE UKRAINE.

Small geopolitical thing that might upset the markets. But we know Obama has retired about 4 months after the last election so nothing from the US other than some pseudo-tuff talk from Kerry and Obama expected. So it may rattle the markets a little, it is not really going to be a long term thing – unless you live in the Ukraine – if so DUCK!

There use to be a time when being part of NATO meant other countries would come to your aid. Must not be oil in the Ukraine. 

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Morning Update: July 24, 2014

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Random Walk’s Motto:

Loving our students like family allows us the energy to go beyond any other firm and your expectations.

yesterday

A Very Happy Day!

Yesterdays names we are following:Screen Shot 2014-07-24 at 5.21.17 AM

RW Today

Today’s Number(s)

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This is not all of the earnings, rather a small portion that Random Walk has been watching in POT.

Yesterday and Today

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Yesterday

A very quiet and boring day as the SPX flirted with all time highs, but the Dow sold off a little.

 

Today

Initial claims and a bunch of big name stocks report before the open. Above in the earnings box the highlighted names are the ones that report before the open. Given the current situation where bad news is no news and good news is good news, I suspect we will push 2,000 in the S&P soon, maybe by Friday. We will see. There is always the geopolitical headache around the corner of late. 

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Morning Update: July 23, 2014

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Random Walk’s Motto:

Loving our students like family allows us the energy to go beyond any other firm and your expectations.

yesterday

A Very Happy Day!

Yesterdays names we are following:

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RW Today

Today’s Number(s)

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This is not all of the earnings, rather a small portion that Random Walk has been watching in POT.

Yesterday and Today

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Yesterday

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The market was quiet and back to its usual doldrums, and higher. The SPX flirted with new highs, but missed it by a couple of points.

After the bell several names came out with earnings such as EA (video game company), MSFT, and AAPL.

The most amazing thing was that after the close the US stated that there was no direct link with Russia to the plane crash. This is the most amazing investigation in the history of plane incidents – especially being a pilot I have some familiarity with the process.

A crash happened at my local airport when a pilot didn’t read his checklist and took off without the fuel selector switch turned to “ON”. It took 4 months to get all the parts in a hanger and rebuild the plane to determine the cause though one of the first pieces recovered was the metal plate with the fuel switch showing OFF> And that was a plane that didn’t make it 300 feet past the runway (and 10 feet off the ground) before crashing. Doesn’t pass the smell test.

I have not hear of a stolen bicycle in my town recovered this fast (5 days). This sounds toooooooooo fishy to believe. Like the Gulf of Tunkin and other incidents I suspect this is BS to smooth life off diplomatically. It just doesn’t pass the sniff test. But then again we don’t believe Iran really, really wants to build a nuke, and ISIS was not the result of us pulling out of Iraq. 

Today

Having had a bunch of earnings come out already everything is quiet and bullish. More earnings out this morning in some big names (MMM, GM, etc.).

If you told me two years ago that we would be watching the disintegration of the Middle East, Iraq becoming a country OWNED and CONTROLLED by al Queda terrorist, Russia invading countries and we spank them with taking away some people’s allowance, Israel being at war with Iran (via Hamas), our country doing NOTHING to assist NATO countries, and the markets at record levels and climbing……I would have tried to have you committed as you were out of touch with reality.

And YET here we are, and going higher – FOR NOW. The Zit keeps growing, but is NOT ready to be popped yet. One can not fight the Fed or the Trend. And this is a whopper of both. So when in doubt, one can not go wrong by pretending to flip a coin and yelling (or is it Yellen) HEADS. 

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Morning Update: July 22, 2014

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Random Walk’s Motto:

Loving our students like family allows us the energy to go beyond any other firm and your expectations.

yesterday

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Above I don’t have a net change for the VIX or SPX as TOS’s “thinkback” didn’t provide any real information. I tried! :)

 

There were a lot of cracks created in the dam last week, but so far they are hard to see. Though causing great structural issues for the market, the impact wont be seen for a while.

 

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RW Today

Today’s Number(s)

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This is not all of the earnings, rather a small portion that Random Walk has been watching in POT.

Yesterday and Today

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Yesterday

The markets opened down the equivalent of about 50 Dow points until an announcement was made that Obama was going to speak at 10:50pm eastern. After that announcement the markets drifted lower to a bottom of 16,974 (about 120 points down). At promptly 11:12 President came out to speak, but reiterated what he had said the previous day.

The markets are still afraid the President will say something tough one day that could signal getting into a military situation, but it is not going to happen with Obama. So after the speech ended the markets fought their way back to only down 20 on the day (made back 100 points). Then the day ended for all practical purposes. 

Today

We are now in “wait and see mode”. It has taken 2 years to NOT get to the bottom of Benghazi. It has taken an equal amount of time to NOT get to the bottom of IRS-gate. I suspect the same thing will happen with this (if the US has any culpability in the matter). Thus the markets will forget about this and move higher (most likely). That is unless yet another international mess is created.

I will say one thing for President Obama. He is certainly trying to give me the volatility in the markets I crave. Bush had one major international mess. Clinton had one mini one. Bush Sr had one. President Obama is all over the map, but none are sticking when there is $4.5 trillion on bond money that has to go somewhere.

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Morning Update: July 21, 2014

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1-855-RWT-0008

Random Walk’s Motto:

Loving our students like family allows us the energy to go beyond any other firm and your expectations.

yesterday

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There were a lot of cracks created in the dam last week, but so far they are hard to see. Though causing great structural issues for the market, the impact wont be seen for a while.

 

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RW Today

Today’s Number(s)

NO ECONOMIC NUMBERS TODAY

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This is not all of the earnings, rather a small portion that Random Walk has been watching in POT.

Yesterday and Today

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Yesterday

The markets we up almost as much as they had sold off the previous day. Recall that on Thursday we had a double feature of Israel going into the Gaza hunting Hamas (sounds like a chick-pea spread) and the Downing of a Malaysian flight. 

Today

Though there are no economic numbers out today, we do have the start of the real portion of earnings coming out. Last week’s corporate earnings were light and a preamble to the next few weeks. 135 companies report today, 140 report Tuesday, 218 report on Wednesday and 332 on Thursday. Nice!

Who knows what is going to happen today. I suspect that we will continue on with the bullish move, but in a guarded manner UNLESS more bone head moves come out of Russia, the US and Middle East.

The Middle East has always been a mess, but contained. After the Persian Gulf War Part 1&2 America over there was more hated than before, but as Machiavelli would say, “It is better to be feared than loved”. Now with all roads leading to weakness in American foreign policy the nut cases of the world are more embolden than ever to do something. They KNOW there will be no repercussions from the US.

Libya is heating up again – nothing done over their after out Ambassador and Seals we killed.

Iraq/ISIS -s heating up and the Muslim authorities are hunting down Christians

Russia

(I don’t believe for one second anything about a rogue group of Ukrainians wanting to be part of Russia, or they would just walk into Russia like Mexicans walk into the US). They shot down an airliner and have been stealing the debris and bodies in the Ukraine and taking them back to Moscow.

Iran – Scary Kerry is releasing $2.8 billion in money for them to help with humanitarian needs – like enriching Uranium.

Gaza – Humas soldiers (and by that I mean Iranian sponsored soldiers) are getting whacked by Israel, but have taken an Israeli soldier captive. This is a problem because unlike the US where we have a soldier sitting in a Mexican jail for being being forced to accidentally cross the boarder (and the President is doing nothing to get him back) Israel will NOT tolerate one of their soldiers being held captive. This is going to flare up even bigger until the soldier is returned.

Syria – After Kerry opened his mouth and let Putin checkmate him in staying out of Syria, they are now supporting ISIS in Iraq.

Problem

So the troubled area is no longer “troubled but quiet”.

One of these days a big event will occur that will not take weeks to figure out what happened. Then the half-life of news will not make culpability seem too far in the past to warrant punishment. And then the market will have its down day. But that is cool, too! Very cool. VERY COOL!

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Morning Update: July 18, 2014

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Random Walk’s Motto:

Loving our students like family allows us the energy to go beyond any other firm and your expectations.

1 Day since the last 1% move. 

yesterday

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First crack was Tuesday.

The second crack was Wednesday

Third bigger crack yesterday. 

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Look. I know it appears that the dam has broken. Still just leaking. 

RW Today

Today’s Number(s)

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Yesterday

Yesterday we had a double feature.

PART ONE

The first mini-disaster was the shooting down of a Malaysian civilian aircraft with 295 people on it. During trading hours it was uncertain if the pane was shot down or mechanical failure. After the close it was confirmed that America saw a missile make radar contact and it had a heat signature fixed. This was deliberate. Now we don’t know if it was Moe, Larry and Curly working a missile truck, or if it was directed by someone important – like Putin.

PART TWO

Netenyahu announced the start of the ground war in the Gaza. Though I am not a war monger it is refreshing to see a leader not get pushed around. So that is what Israel did, and in a controlled big way. When news of this hit the markets fell another 80 points. I don’t think the news was worthy of an 80 point drop, but it was the timing of it that exacerbated the sell-off.

Had it happened on the open probably nothing much would have come of it. Had it happened on a different day probably nothing would have come of it. But considering both events happened on the same day it hit people’s emotional circuit breakers. Combine that with a 4-star general having the balls to speak out against his boss (the President) blaming him directly for ISIS taking control of Iraq, and you have a president looking the stooge. Forget that he is again taking another vacation at Martha’s Vineyard, far from illegal immigrants hoping fences, makes him look out of touch.

The Dow closed down 161 points (-0.94%)

The SPX closed down 23.45 points (-1.18%)

The VIX closed up 3.54 points at 14.54

Today

Two important numbers are out today.

Most likely we had another small scare to get rid of the weak hands. Some people just bluff at poker. Yes there are leaks in the dam, but dams usually don’t crumble quickly. It takes a while for the leak to erode the foundation.

The one thing that could cause HUGE problems is if PUTIN was the one who gave the order to shoot down the plane in retaliation for the harder sanctions imposed on him the previous day. Of course he will deny it, but something like a missile is mathematically easy to track its trajectory. I am sure the US knows the exact latitude and longitude to the foot where the missile originated from. MY GUESS IS that Putin shot it down and will blame it on the Rebels. He is a sneaky little man.

If we have conclusive proof, or at least 85% of it, that Putin ordered the plan down things will kick up a notch. Baring that, we should see a few weak hands selling on the open and then back to normal next week. 

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